Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction – A-League 2026
Newcastle Jets win with Asian handicap (-1) |
Newcastle Jets
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Wellington Phoenix
Newcastle Jets
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Wellington Phoenix
Newcastle Jets and Wellington Phoenix will meet on matchday 14 of the Australian A-League. The home team is in third place, while the visitors occupy eighth position. Who will be able to score points in this match on January 23? The answer lies in our detailed analysis.
Team Analysis: Newcastle Jets
The Newcastle Jets are having an outstanding season and have a chance to reach the playoffs for the first time in a long time. They currently occupy third place in the standings, just one point behind second-placed Sydney FC. The team comes into this match on a three-game winning streak, having beaten championship leaders Auckland FC (3-1), followed by wins against Melbourne City (1-0) and Western Sydney Wanderers (3-1).
Team Analysis: Wellington Phoenix
Wellington Phoenix no longer holds the title of New Zealand's strongest team in the A-League, as the championship has been dominated by Auckland FC, who lead the table. After the appearance of this strong competitor, the visitors have been displaced out of the playoff zone, now occupying eighth position. The club is two points away from the privileged positions. In their last away games, the New Zealanders have achieved victories against Brisbane Roar (3-0) and Sydney FC (2-0), as well as a draw against Adelaide United (2-2).
Statistics of the last matches
Below is a breakdown of both teams' most recent results and their head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head history: Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix
- 01/17/26 A-League: Western Sydney Wanderers 1:2 Newcastle Jets
- 01/11/26 A-League: Melbourne City 0:1 Newcastle Jets
- 01/01/26 A-League: Auckland FC 1:3 Newcastle Jets
- 12/26/25 A-League: Newcastle Jets 4:5 Macarthur FC
- 12/20/25 A-League: Newcastle Jets 2:0 Sydney FC
- 12/14/25 A-League: Wellington Phoenix 1:3 Newcastle Jets
- 01/18/26 A-League: Sydney FC 0:2 Wellington Phoenix
- 01/11/26 A-League: Wellington Phoenix 2:2 Adelaide United
- 03/01/26 A-League: Brisbane Roar 0:3 Wellington Phoenix
- 12/29/25 A-League: Melbourne Victory 5:1 Wellington Phoenix
- 12/21/25 A-League: Wellington Phoenix 3:1 Central Coast Mariners
- 12/14/25 A-League: Wellington Phoenix 1:3 Newcastle Jets
Comparison of goals in recent matches
We analyze the scoring trend of both teams in their last matches.
| Statistics | Newcastle Jets (Last 5 | 10 | 20 games) | Wellington Phoenix (Last 5 | 10 | 20 games) |
|---|---|---|
| More than 0.5 goals | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| More than 1.5 goals | 80% | 100% | 80% | 80% | 90% | 80% |
| More than 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% | 70% | 70% | 80% | 70% |
| More than 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | 30% | 30% | 50% | 30% |
| More than 4.5 goals | 20% | 20% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| More than 5.5 goals | 20% | 20% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
Individual goal performance in recent matches
We examine the individual scoring capacity of each team.
| Statistics | Newcastle Jets (Last 5 | 10 | 20 games) | Wellington Phoenix (Last 5 | 10 | 20 games) |
|---|---|---|
| More than 0.5 goals | 100% | 100% | 100% | 80% | 90% | 80% |
| More than 1.5 goals | 80% | 80% | 60% | 60% | 50% | 30% |
| More than 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% | 30% | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| More than 3.5 goals | 20% | 0% | 10% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
| More than 4.5 goals | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| More than 5.5 goals | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Team performance in head-to-head matches
We analyze the historical performance of both teams when they face each other.
| Statistics | Newcastle Jets (Last 5 | 10 | 20 games) | Wellington Phoenix (Last 5 | 10 | 20 games) |
|---|---|---|
| Average goals scored | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.45 |
| Average goals conceded | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.45 | 1.4 | 2 | 1.8 |
| Clean wins (%) | 0% | 0% | 25% | 0% | 20% | 5% |
| Scored in the 1st half (%) | 20% | 60% | 45% | 60% | 40% | 50% |
| Scored in the 2nd half (%) | 80% | 80% | 75% | 80% | 80% | 60% |
Local performance vs. visitor
We compare the performance of Newcastle Jets at home and Wellington Phoenix as a visitor.
| Statistics | Newcastle Jets (Home – Last 5 | 10 | 20 games) | Wellington Phoenix (Away – Last 5 | 10 | 20 games) |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1,2 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded | 1 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Bet on More than 2.5 goals in the match (%) | 20% | 40% | 30% | 20% | 50% | 30% |
| Bet on Total Ind. 1.5 goals (%) | 40% | 40% | 25% | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Bet on “Both teams will score” (%) | 20% | 40% | 25% | 20% | 50% | 30% |
Performance at both times
We analyze the scoring tendency of both teams in the first and second half of the games.
| Statistics | Newcastle Jets (Last 5 | 10 | 20 games) | Wellington Phoenix (Last 5 | 10 | 20 games) |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1,2 | 1,2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1 |
| Goals conceded | 0.4 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Bet on More than 2.5 goals in the match (%) | 40% | 40% | 45% | 50% | 30% | 30% |
| Bet on Total Ind. 1.5 goals (%) | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 20% | 20% |
| Bet on “Both teams will score” (%) | 40% | 20% | 40% | 40% | 20% | 25% |
Overall Goal Trends
We evaluate the probabilities of certain goal thresholds being exceeded in both teams' matches.
| Statistics | Newcastle Jets (Last 5 | 10 | 20 games) | Wellington Phoenix (Last 5 | 10 | 20 games) |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Bet on More than 2.5 goals in the match (%) | 60% | 80% | 75% | 70% | 80% | 60% |
| Bet on Total Ind. 1.5 goals (%) | 80% | 80% | 65% | 60% | 50% | 40% |
| Bet on “Both teams will score” (%) | 60% | 60% | 65% | 60% | 70% | 55% |
Equipment rating
We assign a score to each team in different key categories.
- Newcastle Jets: Form 9/10, Attack 8/10, Defense 7/10, Motivation 9/10
- Wellington Phoenix: Form 6/10, Attack 6/10, Defense 5/10, Motivation 7/10
Analysis of injuries and possible alignments
Currently, there are no significant injuries reported affecting key players on either team. Both teams are expected to present their strongest lineups.
- Newcastle Jets (Possible lineup): (Goalkeeper), (Defence), (Defence), (Defence), (Defence), (Midfielder), (Midfielder), (Midfielder), (Forward), (Forward), (Forward).
- Wellington Phoenix (Possible lineup): (Goalkeeper), (Defence), (Defence), (Defence), (Defence), (Midfielder), (Midfielder), (Midfielder), (Forward), (Forward), (Forward).
Match Odds
The betting houses present the following odds for the match:
- Newcastle Jets: 1.63
- Tie: 4.70
- Wellington Phoenix: 4.20
The bet on “Total Over 2.5 Goals” is offered at 1.35, while “Total Under 2.5 Goals” is at 2.95.
Bookmaker odds table
| Betting House | 1 (Newcastle Jets) | X (Tie) | 2 (Wellington Phoenix) | More than 2.5 goals | Less than 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New players | 1.60 | 4.70 | 4.30 | 1.33 | 3.05 |
| Free bet $100 | 1.62 | 4.60 | 4.30 | – | – |
| Free bet $100 | 1.66 | 4.60 | 4.30 | 1.33 | 3.25 |
| Free bet $850 | 1.63 | 4.40 | 4.10 | 1.3 | 3 |
| Free bet €5,300 | 1.62 | 4.80 | 4.35 | 1.31 | 3.35 |
| Free bet €130 | 1.62 | 4.70 | 4.20 | 1.35 | 2.95 |
Prediction and recommended bet
Both teams have shown excellent performance in their last matches. However, throughout the season, the locals have conveyed greater solidity. The home advantage should be a determining factor for the Newcastle team to achieve a positive result. We believe that the “Rockets” (nickname of Newcastle Jets) will be able to extend their winning streak.
Our main prediction is a victory for Newcastle Jets with an Asian handicap (-1), with an odds of 1.95.
Main bet: Asian Handicap (-1) for Newcastle Jets (Odds: 1.95).
Safe bet: Newcastle Jets victory (Odds: 1.63).
Risk bet (high odds): Newcastle Jets win and both teams score (Odds: 3.50).
Frequently asked questions (FAQ)
What is the methodology used to prepare this forecast?
Our forecast is based on a comprehensive analysis of statistical data obtained from reliable sources such as Flashscore, Sofascore and Whoscored. We consider factors such as recent team performance, scoring statistics, xG (expected goals), shots on goal, ball possession, cards, injuries, possible lineups, head-to-head history, and home and away performance.
Why is this prediction made?
The prediction is based on Newcastle Jets' current strong form, excellent winning streak and top position in the table. The advantage of playing at home, combined with a favorable recent history and greater consistency throughout the season, leads us to believe in their victory. Wellington Phoenix, although capable of obtaining results, shows less consistency and faces an opponent in an exceptional moment.
What will happen if the prediction does not come true?
In the world of sports betting, there is always a margin of error and unexpected variables. If the prediction does not come true, it is important to remember that football is unpredictable. We recommend managing your bankroll responsibly, diversifying your bets and not getting carried away by frustration. Odds reflect probability, not certainty. In case of a failed prediction, it is recommended to analyze the causes and adjust the strategy for future bets.
How do you evaluate a team's form?
A team's form is assessed by analyzing its results in the last 5 to 10 matches. Wins, draws and losses are considered, as well as the quality of the opponents faced. Other indicators such as goals scored and received, offensive and defensive performance, and consistency in the game are also taken into account.
What is xG (expected goals)?
xG, or expected goals, is a statistical metric that measures the probability that a shot on goal will become a goal, based on factors such as distance to the goal, angle of the shot, and position of the players. A high xG indicates that a team is creating many high-quality scoring opportunities.
Why is the Asian handicap important?
The Asian handicap is a form of betting that seeks to balance the odds between two teams of different levels. A virtual advantage or disadvantage is given to a team to make the bet more attractive. In this case, the handicap (-1) for Newcastle Jets means that they must win by at least two goals difference for the bet to be a winner. If they win by one goal, the bet is considered void (push) and the money is returned.
What does “both teams score” mean?
The “both teams to score” bet wins if both the home team and the away team manage to score at least one goal during the match.
How does the field factor influence the forecast?
The field factor is crucial. Playing at home usually gives teams a psychological and physical advantage, with the support of their fans and familiarity with the pitch. In this match, Newcastle Jets plays at home, which reinforces our confidence in their potential.
What unexpected variables can affect the result?
Several unexpected variables can influence the outcome, such as early expulsions, referee errors, unforeseen injuries during the match, drastic weather changes or exceptional performance by an individual player.
How is the odds of a bet determined?
Odds are set by bookmakers and reflect the estimated probability of an event occurring. They are based on statistical analysis, expert opinion and market supply and demand. The lower the odds, the greater the perceived probability of the event occurring.
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