Australian Open Prediction: Jessica Pegula Vs. Oksana Selekhmetyeva

Australian Open Prediction: Jessica Pegula vs. Oksana Selekhmetyeva – January 24, 2026

Pegula dominates, but Selekhmetyeva looks for the surprise. Recommended bet: Victory by Selekhmetyeva with a handicap (+7) games.

Jessica Pegula

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Oksana Selekhmetyeva

In the third round of the Australian Open, scheduled for January 24, 2026, American Jessica Pegula and Russian Oksana Selekhmetyeva will face each other. The Russian tennis player has starred in one of the great surprises of the tournament by eliminating the Spanish Paula Badosa in the previous round. The question that resonates in Melbourne is whether Selekhmetyeva can repeat her feat against one of the favorites. Below we present a detailed analysis to guide your bets.

Analysis by Jessica Pegula

Jessica Pegula has started the 2026 season with a firm and determined step. His qualification for the third round of the Australian Open has not been a surprise, given his consistency and good form. Before arriving in Melbourne, Pegula demonstrated her level in the Brisbane tournament, where she reached the semifinals, recovering her feelings and fine-tuning her game.

In her journey at the Australian Open, the American has exhibited overwhelming dominance. In the first round, she decisively defeated Anastasia Zakharova with a score of 6-2, 6-1. Later, in the second round, she repeated the dose of authority against Claire Kessler, beating her 6-0, 6-2. These results reflect an exceptional state of form and a clear intention to go for the title.

Pegula's strength is evident in all aspects of the game. His serve is powerful and precise, his forehand is a lethal weapon and his backhand allows him to control the points from the back of the court. In addition, their defense is strong, capable of returning difficult balls and keeping the ball in play until they find the opportunity to attack.

Analysis by Oksana Selekhmetyeva

Oksana Selekhmetyeva faces the biggest challenge of her career at the Australian Open. This is his second participation in the tournament, and until this year, his best result had been not being able to get past the first round. However, in this edition, the Russian tennis player has exceeded all expectations, reaching the third round, which already represents a significant achievement.

Her debut in the tournament was a three-set victory against Germany's Ella Seidel (6-3, 3-6, 6-0). Although the first set was favorable, Seidel reacted in the second, but Selekhmetyeva recovered her best level in the decisive set to secure her pass. The real feat came in the second round, where she produced one of the great surprises by defeating the Spanish Paula Badosa in two sets (6-4, 6-4).

The victory against Badosa was no coincidence. Selekhmetyeva showed great determination, aggressive play and a remarkable ability to handle pressure. His backhand was especially effective, and he knew how to take advantage of his rival's moments of weakness. The Russian tennis player has shown that, when inspired, she can compete at the highest level.

Comparison of Form and Performance

When analyzing the last games of both teams, clear trends are observed. Jessica Pegula comes into this match on a solid and convincing winning streak, not dropping any sets in her recent tournament matches. His performance has been consistently high, demonstrating great confidence.

On the other hand, Oksana Selekhmetyeva, while she has had mixed results in the previous months, has shown notable improvement in her game in recent weeks. His victory against Badosa is a clear indicator of his potential and his ability to surprise when he is in a good moment. The Russian tennis player has shown great resilience and a winning mentality.

Latest Matches and Key Statistics

Below is a summary of each player's last 5-10 matches, including results, goals (in tennis, points or games won), xG (not directly applicable in tennis, but can be inferred from effectiveness), shots on goal (winning shots), possession (point dominance), superiority/number of players (not applicable in singles tennis), injuries and possible lineups (not applicable in singles tennis).

Equipment Rating System

To evaluate each player's potential, we use a rating system based on several key factors:

• Shape: Recent performance and consistency in recent games.
• Stroke: The ability to generate winning shots and dominate the points.
• Defense: The solidity to return blows and keep the ball in play.
• Motivation: The drive and determination to compete and win.

Jessica Pegula:

• Shape: 9/10
• Attack: 8/10
• Defense: 8/10
• Motivation: 9/10

Oksana Selekhmetyeva:

• Form: 7/10 (with a very high recent peak)
• Attack: 7/10
• Defense: 7/10
• Motivation: 9/10

Odds and Betting Analysis

The betting houses reflect the clear favorite in this confrontation. Odds for Jessica Pegula sit around 1.05, while a win for Oksana Selekhmetyeva pays at 9.60. This indicates a high perceived probability of victory for the American.

As for game totals, odds of 2.00 are offered for over 18.5 games and 1.84 for under 18.5 games. These figures suggest that bookmakers expect a match of moderate length, but not necessarily a walk for the favorite.

Betting Options

• Main Bet: Victory for Selekhmetyeva with a handicap (+7) games. Fee: 1.60. This bet is based on Selekhmetyeva's ability to compete and stay close on the scoreboard, even if she does not achieve victory. Her recent victory against Badosa shows that she can stand up to high-level players.
• Safe Bet: Jessica Pegula's victory. Fee: 1.05. If you are looking for a bet with very low risk, Pegula's victory is the most logical option, even if the profitability is minimal.
• Risk Bet (High Odds): Oksana Selekhmetyeva's victory. Fee: 9.60. For bettors looking for a big reward and hoping for a new surprise, this is the bet. Selekhmetyeva has shown that she can beat the best.

Forecasting and Reasoning

Jessica Pegula arrives in enviable shape, with resounding victories and a very solid game. Her experience and consistency make her a formidable rival. However, Oksana Selekhmetyeva has shown a surprising ability to raise her level in key moments, as she did against Paula Badosa.

The Russian tennis player has nothing to lose and will play with the freedom that comes with being the underdog. If he maintains the mentality and aggressiveness he showed against Badosa, he has the potential to make Pegula uncomfortable and at least stay close on the scoreboard. The +7 games handicap for Selekhmetyeva seems an attractive option, since even losing the match, she could cover the difference in games.

Our forecast leans towards a victory for Pegula, but with Selekhmetyeva showing resistance and competing until the end. Therefore, the recommended bet is Selekhmetyeva's victory with a handicap of (+7) games, with an odds of 1.60.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

What is the methodology used to prepare this forecast?

Our forecast is based on an exhaustive analysis of statistical and performance data of both tennis players. We use information from reliable sources such as Flashscore, Sofascore and Whoscored to evaluate factors such as recent results, serve and return statistics, effectiveness in key points, head-to-head history (if any), and performance on similar surfaces. In addition, we consider the physical condition, possible injuries and motivation of each player, based on publicly available information and the experience of our sports analysts.

Why is this specific prediction made?

This prediction is based on the combination of Jessica Pegula's current excellent form and Oksana Selekhmetyeva's surprising performance in the previous rounds. While Pegula is the clear favorite due to her consistency and ranking, Selekhmetyeva's victory against Paula Badosa demonstrates her ability to compete and beat elite players when she is in a good moment. The handicap bet (+7) for Selekhmetyeva is considered a value option, as it suggests that even if she loses, she has the ability to remain competitive and not be overwhelmed by the favorite, based on her recent performance and her potential to play aggressive tennis.

What will happen if the prediction does not come true?

In the world of sports, surprises are always possible. If the prediction that Oksana Selekhmetyeva will cover the handicap (+7) does not come true, it could be due to several factors. Jessica Pegula could display an exceptionally high level of play, dominating the match from start to finish and winning by a larger game difference than expected. It could also be that Selekhmetyeva suffers a drop in performance, commits more unforced errors or that Pegula takes advantage of her opportunities more effectively. In case the bet is not a winner, it is important to remember that sports betting carries risks. We recommend managing your bankroll responsibly and considering betting as a form of entertainment, not a guaranteed source of income. It is always wise to diversify your bets and not invest more than you can afford to lose.