Juan Manuel Cerúndolo Vs Jordan Thompson Prediction – Australian Open January 19, 2026

Juan Manuel Cerúndolo vs Jordan Thompson Prediction – Australian Open January 19, 2026

Thompson's tight victory in four sets and main bet at more than 37.5 games

Juan Manuel Cerúndolo

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Jordan Thompson

In-depth analysis of the match

The Australian Open 2026 gives us a duel in the first round with much more tactical background than indicated in the initial installments. Juan Manuel Cerúndolo and Jordan Thompson face each other in Melbourne with different objectives, but with similar pressure.

For the Argentine, this match represents the real opportunity to break a mental barrier: Has never made it past the first round in Australia. For the Australian, playing at home is once again a maximum requirement against an uncomfortable opponent.

Tournament context and conditions

The match is played on a fast hard court, with expected temperatures close to 28–30 degrees. These conditions tend to favor players with good serve and stamina, but punish poorly managed long rallies.

The official ball maintains a medium-high bounce, which allows Cerúndolo to develop his topspin, although Thompson's flat rhythm gains relevance on these courts.

Juan Manuel Cerúndolo: state of form and analysis

The Argentine arrives as 83 in the ATP ranking. His start to 2026 has been irregular, with good feelings from the back, but problems closing out demanding games.

In his last 7 matches on hard court, Cerúndolo averages 7.6 break balls generated per match.

In Auckland he failed to enter the main draw, falling in the final of the qualification. Even so, its performance was competitive, with 68% of points won with first serve.

Cerúndolo's last 5 games

Its main weakness continues to be the service: only 5.1 aces per match and 21% of service games transferred in hard.

Cerúndolo rating

• Shape: 6.5/10
• Attack: 7/10
• Defense: 7.5/10
• Motivation: 9/10

Jordan Thompson: experience and local factor

The Australian occupies the 111th place in the rankingbut his classification does not reflect his true danger at home. Since 2014 he has competed regularly in Melbourne.

In 2026 the year started with a quarterfinal in Nouméa and an outstanding victory against Denis Shapovalov in an exhibition match.

Thompson wins 74% of games when he lands more than 65% of first serves.

Thompson's last 6 games

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